Solana (SOL) Price Analysis: Bearish Technicals Challenge On-Chain Bullish Indicators

Bearish Technical Outlook Dominates SOL Daily Chart

Technical indicators on the daily Solana chart suggest continued bearish pressure. The formation of a bearish engulfing pattern is projected to maintain downward momentum.

The 1-day timeframe reveals an advancing head-and-shoulders pattern, signaling a potential bearish reversal. A breakdown below the $140 neckline, confirmed by an accompanying volume spike, could signal further downside.

The immediate target identified by this pattern hovers near $126, aligning with the liquidity concentration zone. A potential test of the order block between $95 and $120 (yellow box) is expected within the coming weeks, adding significant resistance.

However, the bearish case could be invalidated if SOL manages a daily close above the $157 resistance level. Notably, Solana’s performance correlates closely with Bitcoin. With Bitcoin potentially approaching the $100,000 support level, broader market sell-side pressure could trigger further corrections in SOL as well.

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On-Chain Data Supports Solana’s Recovery Narrative

Despite the prevailing bearish technical outlook, on-chain data presents a contrasting bullish scenario for SOL.

Network Value to Transactions (NVT) analysis by Glassnode indicates SOL’s market value relative transaction activity is now below 10. This represents the lowest score since February 2025 and suggests robust network utilization.

The Exchange Net Position Change chart reveals consistent withdrawals of SOL from exchanges, with recent inflows increasing. This signifies investor accumulation, as holding assets off exchanges often precedes future gains. Data indicates a significant net outflow, with a peak of -4.6 million SOL, offset by a recent uptick in deposits.

While SOL’s market price experienced a decline from its early-2025 high of approximately $295, these on-chain metrics underscore underlying network strength and sustained investor engagement, providing a counterpoint to the short-term bearish price action.

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.