This Week in Markets
Friday (June 23) – Markets Open with Volatility
Markets experienced sharp early-morning declines due to heightened concerns over U.S. debt levels before staging modest recoveries.
The S&P 500 index opened approximately 1% lower but recovered to trade virtually flat (~2 p.m. ET). The Nasdaq Composite similarly started 1.3% lower but was essentially unchanged by midday.
Bitcoin dipped below $105,000 during trading but recovered by late morning, trading around $105,000 — about 1% lower than its previous high.
Moody’s downgrade of U.S. triple-A credit rating to Aa1 this morning is widely credited with spurring losses in Treasury yields and index rolls.
Downgrade Analysis: Moody’s cited the escalating U.S. fiscal deficit (repeating concerns previously raised by the agency in 2011 and S&P in 2011, Fitch in 2023) as justification for downgrading the U.S. credit rating from AAA to Aa1.
DataTrek Research cautions against overreacting to the downgrade, noting historical precedence shows such actions don’t typically signal imminent recessions or structurally higher interest rates. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the downgrade as a “lagging indicator.”
The revised Trump administration tax bill, advancing Thursday through a House committee after passage last weekend, is expected to widen the deficit.
Monday (June 19) – Key Legislation & Market Outlook
The House is poised to consider key legislation following Sunday night’s procedural vote on the administration’s large-scale tax bill, which economists anticipate will exacerbate the national debt over the next decade.
The Senate Finance Committee will hold a crucial procedural vote later today on the GENIUS Act, legislation addressing stablecoins. Sources suggest today’s vote differs from the failed cloture attempt earlier this month and could mark a significant procedural step.
Tuesday (June 13) – Trade War Developments & Global Growth
No major Trade War updates were reported over the weekend, but President Trump criticized Walmart for not passing along reduced import costs to consumers. Analysts caution other retailers may follow suit if tariffs remain.
The European Commission reduced its end-of-year growth forecast, citing the negative impact of U.S. levies on European export performance. This assessment reflects the persistent drag from ongoing trade disputes.
This content summarizes market-moving events. [Optional Link: Forward Guidance Subscription – e.g., Subscribe to get your daily brief.]
