Circle Scheduled for NYSE Listing Amid High Demand, Low Visibility

Circle, the stablecoin issuer, is set to list on the New York Stock Exchange, four years after the pivotal Coinbase IPO.

In Brief

Circle anticipates a market capitalization of $7.2 billion following its upcoming direct listing. Despite robust institutional takeout demand estimated at $3 billion, doubts persist about attracting a broad retail investor base upon listing.

Market Context

rued writing on [Date] stressed the limited predictive power of current demand. Fineqia’s Matteo Greco highlighted Coinbase’s initial listing in April 2021 as a cautionary tale. Despite high pre-market optimism, Coinbase’s debut ended nowhere near the then lofty $381 opening, instead falling to $328. Further performance saw it decline to below $50 and although recovering, long-term investors faced significant losses.

Analyst Perspectives

Key factors shaping Circle’s stock performance, according to analysts:

• Valuation vs. Fair Value: Fineqia’s Greco emphasized fair valuation is likely the primary driver.
• Historical Caution: Coinbase’s underwhelming early performance serves as a pertinent negative comparison.
• Valuation Metrics: Analyst Edward A. Engel pointed out Circle’s $7.2 billion valuation targets a 14.3x multiple on first-quarter EBITDA, significantly lower than comparative tech stocks like Coinbase (approx. 30x estimated 2025 EBITDA).
• Attractiveness & Challenges: VanEck’s Matthew Sigel labels it a “boring is beautiful” trade but warns retail investors might struggle to engage with Circle compared to the more established Coinbase.

Circle’s Position

Circle’s USDC stablecoin (Circle’s branded dollar-pegged stablecoin) holds approximately 24% of the market share (worth around $250 billion total). It offers high interest income that can scale with adoption. However, Compass Point’s Engel also notes that short-term supply remains linked to crypto trading volumes and cycles.

Forward Guidance Note: Citing potential impact of CRCL stock movement on its price, analysts monitor the relationship between Circle’s performance and broader crypto market conditions.