XRP Eyes Rally to $3.20 Amid Pennant Breakout and Elevated Demand

Pennant Breakout: XRP (XRP) confirmed a break above a long-term pennant pattern on its weekly chart, suggesting potential upside of up to 40%, with targets around $3.20 or higher.

Key Event and OI Surge Signal Rally Catalyst

Market activity and regulatory developments are supporting the potential breakout. Ripple’s application for a US banking licence received positive regulatory feedback from the comptroller. Concurrently, XRP’s futures open interest (OI), which reflects positions held by traders before settlement, climbed significantly.

On recent trading, XRP reached a 7.2% daily gain, hitting an intraday high of $2.31. Contributing factors cited include a rise in Ripple’s active developer GitHub repositories by 90% recently, the recent partnership with OpenPayd for cross-border payments, and increasing odds for a US spot Bitcoin ETF approval from actions like the SEC’s approval of Grayscale’s crypto fund conversion.

Ripple and @OpenPayd are expanding access to fast, compliant cross-border payments. https://t.co/I61X1yC7H3
With Ripple Payments now supported by OpenPayd’s real-time EUR and GBP rails, and direct RLUSD minting and burning, enterprises can seamlessly move between fiat and crypto…

— Ripple (@Ripple) July 2, 2025

Furthermore, XRP’s open interest surged 11% over the last 24 hours and 30% over the last ten days, reaching $4.75 billion. This increase indicates a return of derivatives traders, often signifying institutional interest and added liquidity.

Historical Context and Trader Sentiment

Historical data suggests that growing open interest has often preceded major XRP price rallies. The current surge in OI follows a period where XRP climbed over 66% in four months, accompanied by a fourfold increase in OI, as investors positioned themselves for specific events.

Analysts point to the current bullish market positioning, reflected in a long/short ratio at 68% across exchanges, as further evidence of market confidence in XRP’s potential appreciation. However, this strong bullish sentiment also means that forced long liquidation could pose an unwelcome risk if corrections occur.

Target Price Outlook

The pennant breakout provides a technical baseline for target prices. The height of the pennant’s formation sets a roughly 40% upside target from current levels, around $3.20. While lower daily chart targets suggested a potential higher timeframe of $3.40, the base case remains the weekly technical target at $3.20.