Will XRP shake off its funk?
That’s the question traders may be asking themselves as the Ripple-linked cryptocurrency’s chances of hitting an all-time high in 2025 plunged from 63% in May to 39% on Polymarket, the crypto-fuelled crypto-betting platform.
Investors on Deribit, the derivatives trading platform, paint a similar picture, with more than a quarter of calls being on trades that only pay out if XRP breaks its $3.40 record.
While XRP rallied to $3.37 in January, the digital asset dropped 31% on the back of broader market turmoil and trades at $2.31.
He argued that while it looks like XRP has found some stability around $2.30, “its next move depends a lot on what the wider market does.”
So what will drive the price? As with the broader crypto market this cycle, the main answer to that is Donald Trump.
The Trump trade
The US president promised to shake up markets, relax regulations, and introduce policies to transform the country into the crypto capital of the planet.
Through a barrage of executive orders and key government appointments, Trump has laid the groundwork for a more crypto-friendly government.
However, the commander-in-chief has also rocked crypto — and broader markets in general — by threatening about half of the countries in the world with sweeping tariffs.
Those tariffs have been put on pause until July 9, but the unpredictability coming out of the White House could rock altcoins like XRP.
“Any surprise moves there could dampen sentiment quickly,” Theodorou said.
Regulation
Ripple’s regulatory woes are another key factor holding back XRP.
“Regulatory clarity remains one of the biggest hurdles, and any progress on that front could unlock more interest from larger investors and institutions,” Theodorou said.
The company’s founders developed XRP and the firm uses the cryptocurrency to facilitate cross-border payments.
Traders have equated XRP’s stunted growth with Ripple’s four-year-long legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission. In March, the SEC dropped its lawsuit against Ripple and XRP’s price surged.
In May, the fall in XRP’s chances of breaking a new record in 2025 coincided with the news that a judge had rejected Ripple and the SEC’s request to dissolve a court injunction and slash Ripple’s penalty.
“Until we see that start to pull back, it’s unlikely altcoins like XRP will get the space they need to run,” Theodorou said. “If Bitcoin consolidates or cools off a bit, we might see more money flow into altcoins, and that’s when XRP could really start to push higher.”
To be sure, not everyone is bearish on XRP.
In May, UK bank Standard Chartered predicted that XRP could double its price to $5.50 in 2025 before rising to $12.25 in 2029.
Why? ‘Cause of the overall optimism in the market and Trump’s pro-crypto policies.
Standard Chartered also said the SEC will likely approve the launch of spot XRP exchange-traded funds before October, which the UK bank estimated will trigger up to $8 billion in inflows in their first year of trading.
A Polymarket bet gives XRP ETFs an 87% chance of being approved in 2025.
