XRP Market Dynamics Signal Potential 35% Correction, Parallels to 2017 Cycle Top
May 24, 2025
Key Takeaways
- XRP’s most-profitable investors (those who bought below $0.50 in late 2024) are now raking in ~$68.8M daily in profits.
- Over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap has formed in the last six months, indicating a top-heavy distribution profile.
- Continued selling pressure from newer holders, particularly the 3m-6m cohort, could trigger a ~35% price correction towards $1.35-$1.60.
Daily Profits Exceeding $68M from 2024 Rally Buyers
According to Glassnode data, traders who acquired XRP prior to the November 2024 price surge – when the Ripple token was trading below $0.50 – are now experiencing profits at an unprecedented pace.
The average daily profit being realized from this group is approximately $68.8 million, marking gains exceeding 300% on their initial investment. This significant profit-taking activity is occurring as prices have tripled from their November low, suggesting a distribution phase similar to prior market tops.
Most profit activity stems from this early buyer cohort, signifying a substantial shift in holders exiting their positions.
XRP Metric Mirrors 2017 Cycle Top Pattern (90% Correction Risk)
XRP’s current market dynamics bear a striking resemblance to the period preceding its 2017 cycle peak.
In 2017, XRP underwent a rapid price appreciation from roughly $0.005 to over $2.50 within a short timeframe. This led to a pronounced spike in profit-taking by holders who had accumulated significant gains, ultimately contributing to the subsequent market crash exceeding 90%.
Historical analysis suggests realized profits peaked just before XRP’s 2017 peak. If current profit-taking trends persist, XRP faces a substantial correction in the coming months, reminiscent of the 2017-2018 bear market fractal.
Compounding this risk, data indicates over 70% of XRP’s realized market cap has crystallized since late 2024.
This concentration of recent market cap formation points towards a top-heavy holder distribution profile.
XRP’s SOPR Indicates Potential 35% Decline Risk
The analysis extends into transactional profitability via the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR).
Holders who acquired XRP during the November 2024 rally (the 3m-6m cohort) exhibit the lowest relative profitability. Their average buy price is $2.28, and with the token trading near $2.14, they are barely breaking even.
The SOPR for the 3m-6m group has remained persistently below 1.0 since their entry, indicating an accumulation of losses.
The 6m-12m cohort shows a higher average buy price ($1.35), providing a larger downside buffer before reaching their breakeven point. If selling pressure intensifies from newer holders, XRP could decline towards the $1.35-1.60 range, potentially testing the $1.35 support level.
XRP’s current price is near the floor at $1.30, according to some analysis, forming a descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart.
If XRP holds above the 50-week exponential moving average, a bounce could validate the uptrend and potentially propel prices higher. However, failure to do so may result in a significant downside move towards the $1.35-1.60 range, possibly challenging the $1.35 level where the 6m-12m cohort would also begin facing pressure to take profits.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.