XRP Whale Offloads Trigger Bearish Divergence, 30% Crash Risk Weighs In

Key takeaways:

XRP whales have offloaded approximately 640 million tokens ($1.91 billion) over the past month.
Bearish divergence on XRP’s charts suggests weakening upward momentum.

Onchain data reveals significant XRP distribution by largest holders. According to CryptoQuant, XRP’s largest wallets executed substantial selling activity, offloading around 640 million tokens since July 9.

*XRPL whale flow 90-day moving average. Source: CryptoQuant*

Valued at over $1.91 billion at current prices, this outflow predominantly occurred while XRP traded between $2.28 and $3.54 per token.

This pattern marks the second instance in the past year where whales distributed XRP during a market rally, echoing their actions between November and January 2024 when they sold aggressively despite XRP rising from $1.65 to $3.27.

Some XRP whale activity might represent internal portfolio adjustments rather than pure selling pressure. However, an apparent inverse correlation exists, with whale accumulation observed during previous market weakness, such as the correction from $3.27 to $1.87.

Currently, whale activity appears lackluster. A CryptoQuant affiliate, Enigma Trader, noted:

“At present, there is no sign of consistent accumulation from large holders, a key component for a constructive trend reversal.”

Bullish resistance persists as key bearish signals emerge. Technical analysts warn XRP faces a significant near-term risk.

XRP Must Hold $2.65 to Sidestep Potential 30% Decline

*XRPL whale flow 30-day MA. Source: TradingView*

XRP’s price has failed to translate higher prices into sustained positive momentum, as evidenced by a clear bearish divergence on the weekly chart. While XRP has printed higher highs in recent weeks, its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has consistently made lower highs since January.

This divergence, similar to anticipation leading to the April 2021 market top, signals weakening bullish momentum despite price appreciation. Additionally, decreasing volume accompanying recent price attempts has further reinforced this signal of potential price exhaustion.

Should XRP fail to reclaim the crucial $2.65 support, the price could target the nearby 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $2.55, or extend towards the critical 50-week EMA at $2.06. A breach below $2.00 would significantly escalate the risk of a deeper correction.

Market observers caution that unless stronger buying pressure emerges from whale holders or accumulating retail demand, XRP could face substantial downside.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.