IBM outlines roadmap to build fault-tolerant quantum computer

IBM has reaffirmed its ambition to build the world’s first fault-tolerant quantum computer, set to arrive as early as 2029 and potentially serving as the catalyst for an impending threat to Bitcoin’s security.

• Ideal quantum computers using Bivariate Bicycle codes require 200 error-corrected qubits to perform 100 million operations.
• The prototype “IBM Quantum Starling” will operate from IBM’s Poughkeepsie quantum data center.
• Announced capabilities are part of IBM’s 2033 roadmap.

Fault tolerance is essential for complex algorithms that might target blockchains.

“Recent revisions to our roadmap project a path to 2033 and beyond,” an IBM representative said in a statement. “Based on past success, we feel confident in our continued progress.”

The approach relies on a novel Bivariate Bicycle code, a type of quantum low-density parity-check (LDPC) code that potentially reduces the number of physical qubits required.

Others believe fault tolerance is the linchpin of quantum computing.

“Fault tolerance is really about making these quantum computers less fragile and less error-prone,” Professor David Bader, a computer science professor at the New Jersey Institute of Technology, told Decrypt.

Fault tolerance addresses quantum noise and decoherence through advanced error correction and modular design.

IBM’s “IBM Quantum Starling” system is designed to run complex algorithms with this technique.

Starling roadmap: from 2025 through Deployment

IBM’s quantum scaling aims to reach a fault-tolerant computer through modular processor development.

• 2025:
  • Launch 120-qubit IBM Nighthawk processor with extended circuit depth.
  • Expand Qiskit software for complex computations.
  • Pilot modular fault-tolerant architecture with IBM Quantum Loon.
• 2026:
  • Target “quantum advantage” milestones.
  • Deploy IBM Quantum Kookaburra – first modular processor for encoded data storage/logic.
• 2027:
  • Scale to 1,080 qubits using chip-to-chip coupling.
  • Link Kookaburra modules with IBM Quantum Cockatoo.

From 2028-2029, the fault-tolerant Starling system will debut.

Why it matters

Could this herald an existential threat to blockchain security? Experts temper expectations.

Quantum cryptocurrency expert Michael Saylor recently argued that while banks and government networks face greater immediate risk from powerful computers, breaking Bitcoin’s encryption remains “years away.”

However, Professor Bader emphasized the need for industry action. “A powerful quantum computer capable of running Shor’s algorithm is still years away,” he stated. “Blockchains won’t suddenly break in 2029—but it’s worth watching.”